A split has emerged among U.S. intelligence agencies over whether a foreign adversary may have been responsible for unexplained “Havana syndrome” injuries to American diplomats and intelligence officers stationed overseas.
A U.S. intelligence assessment released Friday revealed that two of seven spy agencies now say a foreign actor may have developed or deployed a weapon that caused the mysterious health incidents. Officials declined to reveal which intelligence services had shifted their view of the injuries, which first emerged in Havana, Cuba.
Five of seven intelligence agencies or departments echoed findings from 2023 and concluded that it was “very unlikely” that a foreign actor caused the medical symptoms that include vertigo, hearing loss, intense headaches, pain in the ears and blurred vision. Their conclusions were based in part on “sensitive intelligence reporting continuing to point away from foreign involvement,” according to the assessment.
The intelligence reporting included information that foreign adversaries were surprised by the incidents or made clear in internal communications that they were not behind them, an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters in a teleconference.
But two agencies said a foreign power may be responsible. One said there was a “roughly even chance” that a novel weapon or a prototype device had been used to harm a small number of the U.S. government personnel who reported the unusual medical symptoms.
And the other unnamed intelligence agency concluded there was a “roughly even chance” that a foreign actor had developed a weapon that could have harmed them.
The view of the two intelligence agencies was based on intelligence reporting indicating that “foreign actors are making progress in scientific research and weapons development,” the report said.
The second agency, though, cautioned that it was unlikely a foreign adversary had used such a weapon in any of the events associated with the “Havana syndrome” cases. Both of the dissenting agencies said they had “low confidence” in their assessments.
The new assessment came after repeated criticism from former and current government employees who say their medical cases were initially ignored or dismissed and that the CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence tried to downplay the possibility of a foreign culprit. Both intelligence agencies have rejected the accusations.
White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said Friday that the report reflected “a shift in key judgements by some intelligence components,” adding that “it reinforces why it is vital that the U.S. Government continue critical research, investigate credible incidents, and strengthen efforts to provide timely care and long-term clinical follow-up.”
National Security Council officials back victims
Victims of “Havana syndrome” say the different tone of the White House statement reflected a rift between officials in the National Security Council, other government departments and lawmakers on the one hand, and some officials in the intelligence community on the other.
Two former government employees who suffered injuries associated with the mysterious health cases told NBC News that senior National Security Council officials told a group of “Havana syndrome” victims in November that previous intelligence assessments were no longer valid and that they believed a foreign actor was likely capable and responsible.
“The NSC has been for years now quietly supportive,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a senior CIA officer injured in Moscow in 2017 and the first former intelligence community official to go public about his experience.
“The NSC has pushed ongoing research and investigative work … which apparently led to a breakthrough,” he said. “All of this was accomplished despite the CIA and ODNI’s ongoing analytic obstinance and gaslighting of victims.”
Republicans on a House intelligence subcommittee issued a report in December saying there was an “increasing likelihood” that a foreign adversary was responsible for some of the reported health incidents. The report also said that the intelligence community’s assessments were “inconsistent with analytic integrity and thoroughness.”
The official with the ODNI who briefed reporters strongly rejected the lawmakers’ accusation, saying all of the analytic work was carried out with strict objectivity and a focus on the facts.
“Integrity is doing what’s right and true, even in the face of impossible pressures,” the official said. “And I want to be clear that the core tenet of analytic tradecraft is putting your emotions aside and letting intelligence, reporting facts and critical thinking lead to our conclusions.”
The ODNI official added that no one in the intelligence community doubts the veracity or the experience of those who reported injuries. “These are our colleagues and friends,” the official said.
The Republican chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, dismissed those statements and said the new assessment amounted to a “cover-up” by the Biden administration. He said the U.S. should completely change its assessment of foreign adversaries’ capabilities based on new intelligence.
“This will not age well for the Biden administration,” Turner said.
Mark Zaid, a lawyer for some of the victims, also criticized the new assessment. He said it “disgracefully continues to hide the truth behind a cloak of secrecy,” but that the intelligence agencies are moving toward acknowledging a foreign power was behind the incidents.
Zaid said he had already filed a freedom of information request on behalf of victims to seek declassification of the new intelligence assessment. He also plans to file a lawsuit next month to compel its release.
