It’s a worn-down cliché to say that the 1999 Kargil conflict is a reminder to India that Pakistan can by no means be trusted. Can an enemy ever be trusted is the logical query to this surmise. On the eve of the twenty second Kargil Vijay Diwas, it’s apparent that the Pakistan military’s perfidy within the rarefied heights of Mushkoh, Drass, Kaksar and Batalik sectors of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was aimed toward exploiting the Indian fault strains with Srinagar in thoughts. With the Narendra Modi authorities dividing the erstwhile state into two union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh and abrogating the particular standing of the previous J&Ok state, the fault-line has nearly been erased. For the previous three many years, Pakistan has additionally been utilizing terrorism as one other weapon to create fissures inside India and polarise the communities.
Nonetheless, the surgical strikes submit the 2016 Uri terror assault and Operation Bandar after the 2019 Pulwana bomb strike have severely blunted Pakistan’s plan to make use of terror as a weapon in opposition to India. A lot to the chagrin of the Pakistani deep state, not solely is India beneath Narendra Modi unfazed by Pakistani nuclear prowess however it’s Islamabad that’s on the backfoot with Indian overt and covert response. The surgical strike and airstrike at Balakot terror camp in hinterland Pakistan present that the Indian response was large to the preliminary terror strike and caught Islamabad unawares. Rawalpindi GHQ’s new weapon is an unmanned aerial car or drone, used to drop weapons and explosives to foment terror and violence within the border state of Punjab and UT of Jammu and Kashmir. Behind this overt motive is to make sure that Indian use of drones for surveillance of borders with Pakistan and past can also be stopped or severely restricted. Moreover, the Pakistani ISI will consistently goal the fault-lines inside communities to widen the rift within the identify of faith or financial disparity or ideology and attempt to destabilise India.
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Whereas the strategists would have us imagine that the rise of the Sunni Deobandi Taliban in Afghanistan will create issues for India in Jammu and Kashmir, Islamabad’s motives in Kabul are radically totally different. Islamabad is aware of that even when on the peak of its energy in Kabul between 1996-2201, the Taliban didn’t utter a phrase on Jammu and Kashmir and therefore there is no such thing as a purpose to imagine that they’d do it now beneath affect of the Pakistani military. Moreover, the Indian navy and safety are fairly competent in dealing with jihadists as they’ve battle-field expertise now operating into 30 years because the Nineties.
The Pakistani recreation in Afghanistan in guaranteeing that the Taliban come to energy after eliminating the Ashraf Ghani regime are two-fold. It desires connectivity to Central Asia by way of Afghanistan in order that its commerce with Europe will increase manifolds. Islamabad’s large brother China can also be ready for this chance because the CPEC hall will hyperlink the Communist Nation to Central Asia through Afghanistan for not solely commerce however exploitation of pure sources together with treasured heavy metals and copper in Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics. The current Afghan regime is all for opening the commerce route however the sole situation is that India can also be a accomplice within the land hall train as it’s the largest importer-exporter of products from Afghanistan. It’s this situation that’s unacceptable to each Pakistan and China.
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An important use of the Taliban for Pakistan is to formalise Durand Line because the worldwide border with Afghanistan. The Durand Line, which divides the Afghan Pashtuns on each side of the Pakistan-Afghan border, was established in 1893 and took its present form in 1919 as per the Anglo-Afghan Treaty of the identical yr. Greater than a century later, the Durand line declare has expired as per the treaty and the current Afghan regime is completely against the British drawn line because the worldwide border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The current regime and the Afghan folks need all of the Pashtun majority areas to return beneath Afghanistan with no synthetic divide as ordained by British imperialists by the identify of Mortimer Durand, ICS. The Taliban, nonetheless, refused to recognise the Durand Line throughout their first time period in energy.
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So as to add to rising Pakistani discomfort on each fronts, the US has seen by way of Islamabad’s recreation to make use of the Taliban as leverage to enhance ties with Washington at the price of India. With US President Joe Biden and NSA Jake Sullivan deciding to carry fingers with the current regime in Kabul, the Afghan safety forces have gained confidence and are actually pushing again the Taliban on the battlefield and retaking district centres.
Simply because the Kargil intrusions had been tactically a great manoeuvre by then military chief Pervez Musharraf however strategically a navy and diplomatic blunder for Pakistan, the Taliban transfer can also be destined to blowback on Islamabad with an enormous variety of Afghan refugees and accompanying violence because of the proliferation of the most recent US-made weapons and ammunition throughout the Khyber and Spin Boldak move. The bounty is on Pakistan.