A hurricane watch and warnings of storm surges up to 15 feet high were issued Tuesday for almost all of Florida’s western coastline as a potential tropical storm moves across the Caribbean Sea and towards the Gulf Coast.
Currently called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, the storm is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday and authorities are urging people to prepare and exercise caution.
The hurricane watch extends from Indian Pass in north-west Florida near Panama City, down to Englewood, and includes Tampa Bay.
At 8 a.m. ET the weather system was about 150 miles west of Grand Cayman, with sustained winds of 35 mph. It’s moving northwest at 9 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
When it is upgraded to a storm, the system will be named Helene, making it the fourth hurricane to hit the U.S. this year.
The center of the potential cyclone is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, the NHC said.
Hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for the entire western coast of the Sunshine State.
A storm surge watch has also been issued from Indian Pass Florida southward to Flamingo, on the tip of the Florida peninsula.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible, and is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated onslaught of tropical-storm-force winds and conditions.
A tropical storm watch is now in place from Indian Pass to the Walton-Bay County line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood, as well as for the Lower Florida Keys.
Outside of the U.S., a hurricane watch is also in effect for parts of eastern Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Tulum and Pinar del Río in Cuba.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to produce four to eight inches of rain over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals around 12 inches. In the southeastern U.S., it’s forecast to produce three to six inches of rain with isolated totals around 10 inches, and will likely result in local flash and urban flooding. It’s also forecast to bring storm surge and strong tide, leading to flooding by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline, the NHC said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 41 counties Monday, which was expanded to include 61 counties Tuesday. Sandbags were being distributed to residents in Tallahassee, Gulfport and Henrico County ahead of potential flooding.
DeSantis said he requested a pre-landfall emergency declaration from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The governor warned that prediction models range from showing the disturbance forming into a tropical storm, and others show it exploding into a possible Category 4 Major Hurricane.
Models show the Big Bend and Panhandle areas should brace for potential direct impact, he said.
He urged Floridians to prepare by filling gas tanks, stocking up on food, cleaning up yards to prevent strong winds from throwing debris and to be familiar with evacuation zones. So far, 18,000 linemen are ready to restore power, 3,000 National Guard soldiers stand ready to assist and the Florida State Guard has also been activated, along with shallow water vessels and search and rescue crews.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an extremely active hurricane season forecasting 17 to 24 named storms, eight to 13 of which could become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. The reasons for the high activity include warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
In the case of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, record warm waters will fuel the intensification of the disturbance. According to Climate Central, exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures along the system’s projected path, through the Northern Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, have been made at least 200 to 500 times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Rapidly intensifying hurricanes are becoming more common in the warmer world.
The three last hurricanes to hit the U.S. were Beryl which made landfall in Texas in June, Debby which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region and again in South Carolina in August, and Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 11.
If this disturbance does become a hurricane, it’ll be the fifth hurricane to make landfall on Florida in three years, according to the Florida Climate Center.
