Vegetable oils drive FAO Meals Worth Index increased in March whereas cereal quotations dip
8 April 2021, Rome – World meals commodity costs rose in March, marking their tenth consecutive month-to-month improve, with quotations for vegetable oils and dairy merchandise main the rise, the Meals and Agriculture Group of the United Nations (FAO) reported at present.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks month-to-month adjustments within the worldwide costs of commonly-traded meals commodities, averaged 118.5 factors in March, 2.1 p.c increased than in February and reaching its highest degree since June 2014.
Developments assorted by commodity sorts. The March improve was led by the FAO Vegetable Oil Worth Index, which rose 8.0 p.c from the earlier month to hit an almost 10-year excessive, with soy oil costs rising sharply due partly to the prospects of agency demand from the biodiesel sector.
The FAO Dairy Worth Index elevated 3.9 p.c from February, with butter costs buoyed by considerably tight provides in Europe related to elevated demand in anticipation of a food-service sector restoration. Milk powder costs additionally rose, supported by a surge in imports in Asia, notably China, as a consequence of declining manufacturing in Oceania and scarce delivery container availability in Europe and North America.
The FAO Meat Worth Index additionally rose, by 2.3 p.c from February, with imports by China and a surge in inner gross sales in Europe forward of the Easter vacation celebration underpinning growing poultry and pig meat quotations. Bovine meat costs remained regular, whereas ovine meat costs declined as dry climate in New Zealand led to farmers offloading animals.
Against this, the FAO Cereal Worth Index dropped by 1.8 p.c, however it’s nonetheless 26.5 p.c increased than in March 2020. Wheat export costs declined probably the most, reflecting typically good provides and beneficial manufacturing prospects for 2021 crops. Maize and rice costs additionally declined, whereas these for sorghum rose.
The FAO Sugar Worth Index declined 4.0 p.c within the month, triggered by prospects of enormous exports from India, nevertheless it remained greater than 30 p.c above its year-earlier degree.
Optimistic cereal crop prospects in 2021
FAO expects world cereal manufacturing in 2021 to extend for the third consecutive 12 months and has raised its preliminary international wheat manufacturing forecast on higher than-earlier-anticipated crop circumstances in a number of international locations. World wheat manufacturing is forecast to succeed in a brand new excessive of 785 million tonnes in 2021, up 1.4 p.c from 2020, pushed by a possible sharp rebound throughout most of Europe and expectations of a document harvest in India.
Above-average outputs are additionally anticipated for maize, with a document harvest anticipated in Brazil and a multi-year excessive in South Africa, in line with FAO’s Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, additionally launched at present.
For the present 2020/21 advertising and marketing season, international cereal utilization is now forecast at 2 777 million tonnes, 2.4 p.c increased than the earlier 12 months, pushed largely by increased estimates of feed use of wheat and barley in China, the place the livestock sector is recovering from African swine fever.
World cereal shares on the finish of 2021 are forecast to say no by 1.7 p.c from their opening ranges to 808 million tonnes. Mixed with the utilization forecasts, the worldwide cereal stock-to-use ratio for 2020/21 is foreseen to dip to a seven-year low of 28.4 p.c.
FAO additionally raised its forecast for world commerce in cereals throughout 2020/21 to 466 million tonnes, a 5.8 p.c improve from the earlier 12 months, pushed by even quicker commerce in coarse grains linked to unprecedented ranges of maize purchases by China. Additionally for rice, worldwide commerce is forecast to broaden by 6 p.c year-on-year.
The Brief presents extra particulars and up to date assessments.
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