Note: ADP mentioned for players in this piece is for all drafts on Yahoo, which started in late May. Some of the running backs had been going undrafted in the majority of leagues, but have trended up in the last week.
Davis scored 20 touchdowns over 12 games at Kentucky last season, and he projects to take over the big-back role in Buffalo. The Bills gave 33-year-old Latavius Murray the 12th-most RB carries inside the five last season despite Josh Allen stealing 14 of them. Starter James Cook, meanwhile, was given just two carries inside the five after Week 4.
Murray, Damien Harris, Ty Johnson and Leonard Fournette combined for 48 red-zone opportunities last season (more than Cook), and three of them are gone. Davis has impressed during preseason action, and Buffalo became by far the league’s run-heaviest team after Joe Brady took over as OC.
Davis has double-digit TD potential as a rookie, and he also has contingent upside in fantasy football leagues on a top-five offense, should Cook suffer an injury. Fantasy drafters are starting to take notice, Davis has an ADP of 128.1 over the past week after going undrafted for the bulk of August.
Brooks compared equally or even favorably to Bijan Robinson in most rushing/receiving categories as Texas’ starting RB in 2023. He’s a three-down back who was easily the best RB prospect in this year’s draft (and would’ve been drafted much higher if not for ACL surgery). Dave Canales plans on running the ball heavily, and top 50 picks have performed well historically in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard was the No. 9 fantasy RB over the final seven weeks last year, and Canales should be a huge boost to an upgraded Carolina offense that also added Diontae Johnson during the offseason. Brooks will require some patience from fantasy managers, as he’ll miss at least the first four games of the season on the PUP list, but Hubbard and Miles Sanders won’t be hurdles when Brooks is healthy.
Brooks should be a workhorse in a Canales scheme over the second half of the season when it matters most in fantasy.
Herbert has averaged 95.5 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) and 0.6 rushing touchdowns during 11 career games with more than 12 carries. He was a top 10 fantasy RB during all three games he was given 20 touches last year. Herbert was also one of just eight backs who forced 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 175 rushing attempts when he finished behind only De’Von Achane in rush yards over expectation.
D’Andre Swift’s contract makes him the heavy favorite to enter as Chicago’s starter, but he missed three-plus games during every season he’s been in the league before last year. For what it’s worth, Herbert has dominated work with Chicago’s first-team offense during the Bears’ second and third preseason games (while Roschon Johnson mysteriously hasn’t played). Swift was not very good last year despite having a favorable environment, so a change on the expected depth chart isn’t out of the question either.
Justin Fields vacated 150+ rush attempts when he departed, and Caleb Williams could lead a highly productive Chicago offense with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining an improved o-line.
Herbert has legit top-12 RB upside should he take over as the Bears’ lead back, and he’s going undrafted in over 90% of Yahoo leagues.
Brown is slated to split work with Zack Moss in a Bengals backfield that vacated 18 touches per game when Joe Mixon left. Brown has flaws — he barely played any third downs last season and finished last among 77 qualified backs in Success Rate. But he also recorded the fastest RB ballcarrier speed and the 12th most fantasy points per opportunity as a rookie.
Moss faded badly down the stretch after a brief run of success, and Brown totaled 1,843 yards and 13 TDs on 355 touches during his final season in college, so he’s proven he can handle a bigger workload. Mixon racked up the third-most red-zone touches as Cincinnati’s lead back last season, and the Bengals’ offense has the potential to be the best in the league if healthy. Brown has real fantasy upside should he be given the opportunity.
We are all rooting for Nick Chubb, but he suffered meniscus damage and a multi-ligament tear to the same knee he badly damaged in 2015. Chubb was placed on the PUP list to start the year, which means he’ll miss at least the first four games of the season. Meanwhile, the Browns have an elite offensive line and one of the best rosters in football (outside of QB). Ford was a top 25 fantasy RB with Chubb out last season, and he’s available after the 10th round of 12-team leagues on Yahoo.
Wright had the second-highest YPC (7.6) among all college RBs last season. He’s a super athletic back who ran a 4.38 40 and is joining a Miami backfield that just scored 50+ more fantasy points than any RB group since 2020. Raheem Mostert is 32 years old with an extensive injury history, while De’Von Achane is 5-9, 188 pounds and also has plenty of durability concerns.
The Dolphins traded up to draft Wright, who sat out Miami’s second preseason game with a minor injury. In Mike McDaniel’s system and two injury-prone backs ahead of him, Wright could be “a fantasy football league winner” as a rookie.
Tracy is a former WR turned RB who forced a missed tackle on 39% of his attempts last season in college. He impressed during his preseason debut, even playing during third downs. Tracy’s initially scary-looking injury in practice in mid-August wasn’t as severe as it seemed; he’s returned to practice and should be ready for Week 1. Devin Singletary enters as New York’s clear starter, but he’s 27 years old and last season’s 216 carries marked a career high. Tracy is one injury away from being a top priority on waiver wires.
Allen scored 35 touchdowns over 35 games in college, where he put up a big line as a 17-year-old freshman at Wisconsin. He had the second-highest career Dominator Rating in this year’s running backs class and has seemingly won New York’s backup RB role. Depth was thin behind Breece Hall, and Allen owned the most explosive run rate in the league through the first weekend of preseason action.
The Jets massively revamped their offensive line during the offseason, and Aaron Rodgers is an even bigger upgrade at quarterback. According to Mike Clay’s projections, New York enters 2024 with the No. 1 roster in the NFL.
Allen is one injury away from being a fantasy difference-maker, but is just now starting to get noticed by fantasy managers with an ADP of 130.9 over the last week on Yahoo.
Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Mason had been flying completely under the fantasy radar despite consistent reports of him winning San Francisco’s backup RB role throughout summer. He’s quietly averaged 5.6 YPC over his first two years in the league, and Mason worked hard on his receiving and pass-protection skills during the offseason. Kyle Shanahan is a fan of Mason, and veteran Elijah Mitchell was just placed on season-ending IR. Meanwhile, rookie Isaac Guerendo is a non-factor after suffering a severe hamstring pull.
Mason is no longer a secret after dominating the 49ers’ opening preseason series, which he finished with a touchdown run. Christian McCaffrey is fully expected to be ready for Week 1; he says he could play in a game today if needed. But CMC was shut down for the preseason with a strained calf, battled injuries over 2020-2021 and saw more than 400 touches last year, so he carries risk.
Mason would certainly be a fantasy difference-maker if he became the lead back in the NFL’s best offensive system. After going undrafted in the bulk of leagues, his ADP is 122.9 over the last week and should continue to rise following the Mitchell news.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Irving is the favorite to enter 2024 as Tampa Bay’s RB2 after a strong showing throughout the preseason. Starter Rachaad White is a good receiver, but he’s one of the worst runners in the league; White ranked dead last in rush yards over expectation, yards after contact per carry and missed tackles forced per carry. Irving totaled 1,458 and 12 touchdowns over 13 games as a 21-year-old last season at Oregon, so he’s a fantasy sleeper. Yahoo managers are also starting to take notice, as his ADP is 129.5 over the last week on Yahoo after going undrafted in most leagues the majority of August.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (Yahoo ADP: 106.0)
Spears was the only RB to force 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 100 carries last season, and he ranked third among backs in first-read targets as a rookie. Spears recorded the fourth-most scrimmage yards (1,837) his final year in college, where he especially thrived out of shotgun; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shotgun rate last season.
Meanwhile, his competition for touches has gone from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard has admitted he didn’t feel totally healthy coming off TightRope surgery until the middle of last season, and there’s no question he improved down the stretch. Still, his numbers remained disappointing over the second half, and Pollard somehow finished as just the RB22 (11.5 FPPG) despite seeing the second-most red-zone touches (72) in the league behind a strong offensive line. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while running 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year.
Spears may not have a long NFL career, but he’s a much better bet than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be flipped.
