Drop the unrealistic deportation goal and go after criminals

Border Czar Tom Homan was hand-picked by President Donald Trump to carry out the mass deportations that were central to Trump’s winning campaign. Since his appointment, Homan has sown fear among immigrant communities, blustered on television about prosecuting mayors of blue cities who don’t comply, and staged photo ops of shackled migrants being flown out of the US.  

But large-scale removals have yet to materialize. Increasingly it seems Trump’s promise of “mass deportations” is simply a reprise of his first-term pledge to “build the wall” — an unattainable objective that serves only to grab attention and drive outrage.

Consider Trump’s goal of ejecting 11 million undocumented immigrants, some of whom have lived here for decades. Achieving that number would require a mind-boggling 229,000 removals per month over the course of his term. The full court press Homan and ICE have been waging has netted only a fraction of that. With some ICE agents reportedly working six days a week, Homan has managed to push arrests to about 20,000 for all of February.

Many of these have been rounded up in relatively small raids. A week-long operation in Houston detained 646 undocumented immigrants, including what ICE said were over 500 criminal migrants and gang members. More typical has been a recent incident in Duluth, Minnesota, where ICE agents swarmed a location where workers were installing a new roof, nabbing five. ICE picked up another seven at a manufacturing facility in St. Louis Park, a suburb of Minneapolis.

To be sure, Trump’s obsessive energy on immigration has resulted in some clear progress on this part of his agenda. Border crossings have fallen to historic lows, in part because Trump shut down the asylum process that had refugees camping out at the southern border. The refugee program had gotten out of control due to President Joe Biden’s well-intentioned belief that the US should have more generous policies for admitting refugees. Shuttering it without warning was an unnecessarily brutal measure that surely endangered some refugees’ lives. At the same time, Americans’ tolerance for mushrooming clusters of refugees was wearing thin as newcomers strained resources.

And the new administration’s focus on “worst first,” as Homan calls it, is a smart use of resources. Aiming squarely at removing criminal migrants may not result in large numbers — since most undocumented immigrants don’t commit crimes — but is one that most US residents would support. To show how necessary that measure was, ICE in 2024 identified 626,000 undocumented immigrants with criminal histories who were on the “non-detained docket,” meaning they were awaiting deportation but not in custody. Of those, 435,000 had criminal convictions, while another 226,000 faced pending charges.

Still, even if ICE deports all those people, that will be just 5.7% of Trump’s 11 million goal. So the pressure from Trump, who reportedly checks in weekly with Homan on the need to produce bigger numbers, continues to build.

The administration would do better to abandon the 11 million goal. If Homan does further ramp up his efforts, it will ripple out to nearly all facets of American life, including businesses, local governments and families.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, warned this week that Trump’s plan for large-scale deportations could have severe impacts on agriculture and construction, triggering a labor shortage and higher prices, which in turn could further fuel inflation. Fink said leaders in the agriculture sector have said up to 70% of their workers are migrants.

It’s no secret where the undocumented immigrants are. Go to any meatpacking plant, farm, restaurant or large-scale construction site and agents would find hundreds of potential arrestees. Heck, go to any Home Depot parking lot, where immigrants congregate waiting to be hired as day labor.

Homan knows this. But he lacks the resources to tackle the size of the operation Trump wants. That’s why Homan is going after mayors. He needs their resources and cooperation. Their jails can add detention space and their police officers can provide tip-offs and aid.

But, like his boss, Homan is inclined to demand, not to ask. Informed that the Boston police commissioner would not be cooperating with federal agents (a right protected by the 10th amendment) Homan responded by saying, “I’m coming to Boston. I’m bringing hell with me.”

Homan would be better advised to pursue the achievable goals of deporting criminal migrants and revamping the refugee process in a way that maintains border security. And to try collaborating with cities instead of making them adversaries. It’s worked in the past.

Chasing down millions of undocumented immigrants who mostly work, pay taxes and keep to themselves is both foolish and self-defeating.