Does Israel have a new plan for Gaza?

Four people were killed and dozens wounded in Gaza after Israeli air attacks. More than 42,000 people have been killed in the strip since October 7th 2023, according to the Hamas-run authorities. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) claimed they had conducted a “precise strike” on a “terrorist” headquarters adjacent to a hospital. On October 6th nearby Jabalia, a refugee camp, was surrounded by an armoured division. The idf says that it is attacking some 4,000 Hamas fighters who have been regrouping in northern Gaza. In response the idf has told civilians in the north to evacuate. It has halted convoys carrying food, leaving the area without vegetables, fruit, yogurt or even rice. “For a fortnight we’ve only eaten beans and bread,” says a former civil servant.

Israel’s own figures suggest the overall flow of aid to Gaza, measured by weight, has dropped by more than half during October so far compared with the rate in September. That has angered America. On October 14th Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, and Lloyd Austin, the defence secretary, threatened to cut military aid to Israel if it does not increase the flow of supplies. This was the most overt warning in this war from Israel’s main ally and it led to the IDF’s allowing the first humanitarian convoy into northern Gaza in two weeks.

Some speculate that the IDF will implement what the Israeli media is calling “the generals’ plan” to eliminate Hamas fighters and press their leader, Yahya Sinwar, to release the 101 Israeli hostages still being held. The plan—proposed by a group of retired generals—entails cutting off food supplies to northern Gaza where roughly 400,000 civilians are present (down from a pre-war population of about 1.1m), and demanding that they move elsewhere in Gaza where supplies would continue. Anyone who remains would be treated as a combatant. For now, despite going hungry, people are not leaving. Resistance, for most, is staying put. Leaving “is going from one hell to another”, says one resident. “We’d rather die in our homes.”

The IDF denies it is implementing any such plan, which would probably amount to starving out the population and be in breach of international law. It insists its operation is aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping. Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, and the IDF Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, have tried to assure their American counterparts of that. But further down the chain of command, the Israeli denial is less emphatic. “The operation in Jabalia is very clearly aimed at getting the civilians to leave north Gaza,” says one officer involved in the fighting. “But it hasn’t worked because the Palestinians just refused to leave.” Another officer says, “some of the senior commanders in Gaza have been trying to achieve this outcome, but they don’t even have sufficient forces to carry out such a major operation”.

Four divisions, the bulk of the IDF’s ground forces, are involved in a campaign in southern Lebanon against Hizbullah, which has been shelling Israel’s northern communities for over a year. Meanwhile, Israel’s military planners are focused on its response to the salvo of 181 ballistic missiles fired from Iran on October 1st. This is expected to take place within days, most likely in the shape of long-range air strikes. The arrival in Israel on October 15th of an American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) anti-missile battery and its crew suggests that Israel has struck an agreement with America and will probably hit military targets in Iran but refrain from hitting oil facilities and nuclear sites. One Israeli official admits that with the top brass preoccupied by Lebanon and Iran, the commanders in Gaza may have taken their own initiative.

Israel’s incoherent strategy in Gaza reflects the divisions within its government. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has yet to present a comprehensive “day after” plan for Gaza. His main opponent in cabinet, Mr Gallant, is in favour of gradually handing over control to a new administration of local Palestinian leaders who are not aligned with Hamas. But Mr Netanyahu has refused to authorise such a plan. Meanwhile, the far-right parties in his coalition, who say they want to build settlements in Gaza, are demanding that the IDF take over full responsibility for supplies.

“If we take responsibility for the distribution of food in Gaza, it means we have to establish a full administration there,” says a general opposed to the far-right’s plans. Mr Netanyahu, whose parliamentary majority needs the far-right parties, has not taken a clear position on the aid issue. He is in no rush to end the war in Gaza, since it would be followed by a national reckoning over his government’s failings in preventing the Hamas attack on October 7th.

“A year into this war and there still isn’t any clear strategy on how to deal with Gaza,” says an exasperated Israeli security official. “The government is focused on the war with Hizbullah and Iran, but Gaza is where it all started and they’re ignoring it now at Israel’s peril.”