Can India make it to the WTC Final after MCG defeat?

Following a 3-0 whitewash at home at the hands of New Zealand, Team India had the uphill task of bringing the fortunes back in their favor with an impressive Border Gavaskar Trophy outing in Australia. Despite winning the Perth Test under stand-in captain Jasprit Bumrah, the momentum was doused at the Adelaide Oval and the MCG where the Men in Blue incurred heavy defeats to go down 1-2 in the ongoing series. With 52.78 percentage points and stationed third in the WTC points table, India’s chances to make it to the second spot are in jeopardy.

In this piece, we shall delve into the possible scenarios going forward in the ongoing cycle and India’s possibility of making it to the WTC Finals.

Scenario: India wins the Sydney Test

Even if India wins the fifth Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground, and equalise the series tally, their hopes of making it to the WTC Final won’t be confirmed. They will land at 55.26%, which Australia can surpass if they win at least one game in the two-match series against Sri Lanka. It may sound simple for an Indian fan but it ain’t so. The SCG is known for its spin-friendly conditions but the visitors have been poor against spin in the ongoing cycle with the whitewash to New Zealand being a prime example. Nevertheless, Rohit Sharma and his boys would be blazing all guns to ensure a win. It is also worth noting that a couple of drawn affairs between Australia and Sri Lanka would fancy India’s chances to cement the second spot in this case.
Scenario: The Sydney Test ends in a Draw.

If India draws the New Year’s Test at the SCG, they would end up with 51.75 percentage points. In this case, reaching the finals out be out of their scope even if Australia loses the Test series against Sri Lanka 2-0. The Lankans’ points ceiling in the ensuing cycle is 53.85 if they win both matches against Australia. So, if the fifth Test ends up as a stalemate, the Men in Blue would further drop down in the table, let alone chances for qualification.
Scenario: India loses the Sydney Test

Without any doubt, India will be eliminated if they lose the fifth Test against Australia, which starts on January 3. 

India holds a partial grip on their WTC Final chances. To shift the odds in their favor, firstly, they must clinch a victory at the SCG Test and then rely on Sri Lanka’s efforts to disrupt Australia’s campaign.