Lebanon’s parliament was set Thursday to make yet another effort to elect a president, filling a vacuum that’s lasted for more than two years.
While 12 previous attempts have failed to choose a successor to former President Michel Aoun, whose term ended in October 2022, there are indications that Thursday’s vote may produce a head of state.
The leading candidate is Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun, no relation to the former president. He is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia, whose assistance Lebanon will need as it seeks to rebuild after a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Hezbollah previously backed another candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of a small Christian party in northern Lebanon with close ties to former Syrian President Bashar Assad.
However, on Wednesday, Frangieh announced he had withdrawn from the race and endorsed Aoun, apparently clearing the way for the army chief.
Lebanon’s fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.
As a sitting army commander, Joseph Aoun is technically barred from becoming president by Lebanon’s constitution. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.
Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority of the 128-member house in the first round of voting, or by a simple majority in a subsequent round.
But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.
Other contenders include Jihad Azour, a former finance minister who is now the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund; and Elias al-Baysari, the acting head of Lebanon’s General Security agency.
A president is needed to appoint a permanent prime minister and cabinet. The caretaker government that has run Lebanon for the last two years has reduced powers because it was not appointed by a sitting president.
The next government will face daunting challenges apart from implementing the ceasefire agreement that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and seeking funds for reconstruction.
Lebanon is six years into an economic and financial crisis that decimated the country’s currency and wiped out the savings of many Lebanese. The cash-strapped state electricity company provides only a few hours of power a day.
The country’s leaders reached a preliminary agreement with the IMF for a bail-out package in 2022 but have made limited progress on reforms required to clinch the deal.
