Satellite images appeared to show Russian forces packing up and dismantling military equipment at one of their key bases in Syria on Friday, suggesting that it may be preparing for a military withdrawal after former president and Russian ally Bashar Al-Assad was overthrown by Syrian rebels last week.
It remains to be seen what the final arrangement may be between Russia and Syria’s new government, but the movements reflect the profound shift in the country’s post-Assad power dynamics, as Moscow grapples with losing a key ally and the potential erosion of its influence in the Middle East.
Maxar Technologies, a U.S. defense contractor, released imagery on Friday showing transport movements at Russia’s Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base, both located south of Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
At Hmeimim, two An-124 heavy transport aircraft were observed on the airfield with their nose cones raised, ready to load equipment. Nearby, a Ka-52 attack helicopter was seen being dismantled, likely in preparation for transport.
Other forces, including Russian military convoys, appear to be heading toward the airbase.
Footage verified by NBC News captured a Russian convoy traveling north toward Homs along the highway connecting Damascus in the south to Aleppo in the north. “May God never return you,” the person filming the video says, noting it was the second such convoy he had seen.
Another video shows Russian military vehicles driving in Jableh, near Hmeimim airbase.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based monitoring group, also reported that Russian forces were withdrawing from the Hassia area south of Homs, with plans to regroup later at Hmeimim.
Similar movements of Russian forces on the move have been observed across the country.
Another verified video showed Russian military vehicles driving through what appears to be Syria as bystanders waved their shoes at the cars. A separate video, posted by the prominent Russian military-themed Telegram channel “Military Informer,” purportedly showed a Russian military column crossing through Kurdish-controlled territories in Syria.
The fall of Assad has dealt a significant blow to Russia, which is already engaged in a protracted land war in Ukraine.
Russia’s military presence in Syria has been central to its strategy in the Middle East, with Hmeimim and Tartus serving as critical hubs for projecting power across the region and safeguarding Moscow’s influence in the Mediterranean.
When Russia intervened in the Syrian Civil War in 2015, its support shifted the balance decisively in Assad’s favor, but Moscow has not prevented his downfall this time, and any significant withdrawal from the country would mark a major blow.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov played down the damage last week, saying that while Russia had expended significant effort in stabilizing Syria in the past, its current priority lies with the conflict in Ukraine.
He said that Moscow is now in discussions with the new Syrian leadership to address issues related to its military presence and the security of Russian citizens and diplomats in the country.
“You know, of course, that we are in contact with those who are currently in control of the situation in Syria,” Peskov told reporters, as translated by Reuters.
In a notable shift, Russian state media has begun referring to the Syrian rebels as “rebels” rather than “terrorists,” signaling Moscow’s intention to engage diplomatically with the new authorities in Syria as it seeks to maintain its strategic military foothold on the Mediterranean.
However, there is no indication that a specific agreement has been reached to secure Russia’s continued presence.
Meanwhile, Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations sent two identical letters to the U.N. and the U.N. Security Council on Saturday, containing an official complaint after Israeli forces moved into Syrian territory last week, while launching a massive wave of airstrikes into the country.
“Syria renews its demand that the United Nations and the Security Council assume their responsibilities and take firm and immediate measures to compel Israel to immediately cease its ongoing attacks on Syrian territory, ensure that they are not repeated, withdraw immediately from the areas into which it has penetrated over the past days,” the letter said.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said last week that he had ordered the military to establish a “sterile defense zone” in southern Syria as Israeli forces seize control of the demilitarized, U.N.-patrolled buffer zone, established under a 1974 ceasefire agreement.
Israel says its airstrikes and actions on the ground are aimed at preventing Assad’s arsenal of rockets and chemical weapons from falling into the hands of extremists who could threaten its borders or people.
But its advance has raised alarm when the international community is already nervous about further instability as Syria navigates its transition away from 53 years of Assad rule.
