The 12-team bracket for the College Football Playoff is almost set.
With the regular season over, all that remains between the reveal of the final bracket Sunday are this weekend’s slate of conference championship games. They will afford the 13-person committee that ranks and seeds the playoff bracket a precious few more “data points” on which to evaluate who gets in, and who gets left out.
The lack of such “data points,” as described by Warde Manuel, the Michigan athletic director who chairs the playoff’s selection committee, could be why movement between the penultimate rankings released Tuesday and the final bracket Sunday could be minimal. Manuel, while explaining the committee’s rationale Tuesday, told ESPN that “any team that is not playing right now, we don’t have a data point to rearrange where we have those teams ranked, and so that is set in terms of how we see them going into the final week of championship week.”
“… Those teams who are not playing cannot be adjusted in terms of where they are compared to other teams that are not playing, but the championship [game] teams we will evaluate that data point to determine if there needs to be any movement, based on how the performance of the game goes.”
That doesn’t mean the championship weekend won’t re-arrange the standings somewhat. Beware the bid thief — a team on the bubble that upsets a team currently projected to be in, which could see that conference earning one extra bid than expected, and taking away another conference’s berth in the process.
So, feeling anxious yet about your team’s chances to make the inaugural 12-team playoff? Wondering how safe your school’s bid might be? We’ve ranked the top-12 from the playoff committee’s latest rankings, plus teams on the bubble, on a scale from 1 (start planning your trip to a non-playoff bowl) to 10 (don’t sweat it; you’re in).
How will the College Football Playoff bracket be set? Read our explainer.
1. Oregon (12-0)
Next game: Big Ten championship vs. No. 3 Penn State.
Safe scale: 10/10. Safe as can be.
The No. 1 team in every top-25 released by the committee this season, Oregon is 12-0 for the first time since 2010 and the lone remaining undefeated team. It is assuredly bound for the field of 12, no matter whether it wins or loses Saturday. The only question is whether the Ducks will earn a first-round bye with a victory — a reminder that the four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top four seeds and the byes that come with them — or host a first-round playoff game, with a loss.
2. Texas (11-1)
Next game: SEC championship vs. Georgia
Safe scale: 10/10
Rest easy, Bevo. The Longhorns, who play Georgia in the SEC title game, are heading to the playoff whether they win or lose this weekend. The only mystery is whether their first game will be during the first round Dec. 20-21, or if they will advance straight to the quarterfinals held Dec. 31-Jan. 1.
3. Penn State (11-1)
Next game: Big Ten championship vs. Oregon
Safe scale: 9/10
The Nittany Lions’ only loss is to No. 6 Ohio State, and their resume has clearly impressed the committee. Short of a monumental meltdown, a loss in the Big Ten title game to Oregon shouldn’t send Penn State tumbling out of the bracket.
4. Notre Dame (11-1)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 10/10
Just as inexplicable as its Sept. 7 loss to Northern Illinois remains, Notre Dame has been rock solid ever since, winning 10 consecutive games to be in perfect position to make the playoff. As an independent, Notre Dame cannot earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye, meaning the Irish are getting ready to host a playoff game on campus either Dec. 20 or 21.
5. Georgia (10-2)
Next game: SEC championship vs. Texas
Safe scale: 9/10
The Bulldogs barely stayed in the bracket by surviving in eight overtimes last week against rival Georgia Tech. They’re not out of the woods yet. Losing in the SEC title game would complicate the Bulldogs’ case, but even so, with their only losses to No. 11 Alabama and No. 13. Mississippi, they’re likely in no matter what happens against Texas, so long as they don’t lose by a confidence-shaking margin. After costing itself a playoff berth last season by losing in the SEC championship, the Bulldogs are well aware of the stakes.
6. Ohio State (10-2)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 9/10
After one of the most puzzling losses in the history of its rivalry with Michigan, which had entered as a severe underdog, Ohio State dropped four spots and might be the most miserable team ever in line to make the playoff. It hasn’t quieted the debate about whether their coach will still be in his job after the playoff.
7. Tennessee (10-2)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 10/10
With non-championship game teams essentially locked in place, the Volunteers appear all but assured to host a first-round playoff game.
8. SMU (11-1)
Next game: ACC Championship vs. Clemson
Safe scale: 6/10
The two most anxiety-inducing words heard across the Dallas metro area Tuesday were “potentially, yes.” As in Manuel, the playoff committee chair, saying that “potentially, yes,” SMU could fall out of the playoff entirely should it lose to No. 17 Clemson in the ACC championship.
“And they can move above teams, as well,” Manuel added. “Again, it just depends on the outcome of the game.” The cleanest outcome for SMU involves winning, of course. Judging by the current rankings, it would host a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions with a win.
Would the committee, which says it values teams advancing to their league title game, really want to set the precedent of leaving out a team that was previously in the field after losing in its title game?
9. Indiana (11-1)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 4/10
To remain in the bracket the Hoosiers must hope that favorites win during championship weekend. Upsets in the ACC and Mountain West, in particular, could lead to more bids than expected for those leagues and Indiana would be a prime candidate to lose its spot because it has zero wins against teams currently ranked in the committee’s top-25.
10. Boise State (11-1)
Next game: Mountain West championship vs. UNLV
Safe scale: 8/10
The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in 2,000-yard running back Ashton Jeanty and their only loss is to No. 1 Oregon, which it played down-to-the-wire in September. A conference championship would point toward Boise State earning a first-round bye, yet their ranking isn’t so high that it isn’t inconceivable that an upset loss to UNLV, combined with other unexpected results this weekend, couldn’t knock Boise out of the playoff field. When Boise State and UNLV played in October, the win was decided by just five points.
11. Alabama (9-3)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 3/10
Like Indiana, the Crimson Tide are in the playoff field if upsets don’t throw this weekend into disarray. Yet as the last team currently in the bracket, Alabama will be on edge Saturday, particularly if Clemson beats SMU. In theory, that scenario would leave the committee weighing whether to include a two-loss Mustangs team that has zero wins against any teams currently ranked in the committee’s top-25, or the three-loss Tide, which has three.
12. Miami (10-2)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 3/10
Miami’s No. 12 ranking does not mean it will be the last team in. It likely makes it the first team left out. Had the Hurricanes beaten Syracuse last weekend, their chance of making the bracket would be a near-lock. Instead, by losing to the Orange they lost out on an ACC title-game berth — which went to Clemson — and a final opportunity to make their case to the committee on the field.
The 12-team playoff must include the five highest-ranked conference champions, and with both teams in the Big 12 title game ranked behind Miami — No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State — it means the winner will jump into the playoff field, and that likely means pushing Miami out. The Hurricanes’ slim hopes rest on SMU losing to Clemson and forcing the committee to choose between them, SMU and Alabama.
13. Mississippi (9-3)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 1/10
Instead of the SEC placing as many as five in the bracket as once seemed possible, the conference beat up on itself so much that the credentials of some were damaged beyond repair in the eyes of the committee — Mississippi included, apparently. Ole Miss beat Georgia convincingly by 18 points this season, but even if Georgia beats Texas for the SEC title, that won’t burnish Ole Miss’s case for inclusion because, as Manuel said, teams not playing in their conference title game are essentially frozen in the rankings. Ole Miss’s ranking won’t be changed and it will finish just outside the bracket.
14. South Carolina (9-3)
Next game: Idle
Safe scale: 1/10
Six consecutive wins, including last weekend against No. 17 Clemson, makes the Gamecocks the hottest team in the SEC. Coach Shane Beamer’s argument for his team was that it was the best in the conference right now. But due to earlier losses to Alabama and Mississippi, who are ranked ahead of the Gamecocks and similarly idle this weekend, there isn’t a path to leapfrog them into the playoff.
“If I hear the word ‘data point’ one more time in my life, I might throw up,” Beamer told reporters Wednesday.
15. Arizona State (10-2)
Next game: Big 12 championship vs. Iowa State
Safe scale: 5/10
Just 3-9 and under a self-imposed bowl ban one year ago, the Sun Devils are college football’s most unlikely playoff darling in coach Kenny Dillingham’s second season. With no case for Arizona State to earn an at-large bid, their playoff math is simple: Win and you’re in. Or else.
16. Iowa State (10-2)
Next game: Big 12 championship vs. Arizona State
Safe scale: 5/10
Like the Sun Devils, the Cyclones also won’t be in consideration to earn an at-large bid should they lose in the Big 12 title game. A victory leads to the playoff. A loss, to a lesser-tier bowl.
17. Clemson (9-3)
Next game: ACC championship vs. SMU
Safe scale: 5/10
They rank halfway on the scale only because a win means the Tigers are in, as they would be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. This is a prime bid-thief possibility. Since a loss to Louisville on Nov. 2 that doomed their at-large bid potential, the Tigers haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game.
20. UNLV (10-2)
Next game: Mountain West championship vs. Boise State
Safe scale: 5/10
Another possible bid thief. Judging by the current rankings, Boise State would earn a first-round playoff bye but that would change if UNLV wins the Mountain West title game, and that could very well happen based on how close these teams played one another in October. Rebels fans will be sweating it out this weekend. They’re in with a win, but out without.
