With just three days until the election, former President Donald Trump’s campaign remains unsettled about his prospects in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state that he’s claimed in two consecutive presidential elections.
When asked why, a Trump campaign official put it bluntly.
“If there’s one state that could bite you in the a–, it’s North Carolina,” the official said.
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At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team, which less than two weeks ago feared the Tar Heel State was “a little bit slipping away,” is now seeing it as “very much in play,” a senior campaign official said.
Their dueling outlooks emerged as both campaigns landed in North Carolina, with the candidates rallying voters in a margin-of-error contest that’s raising the stakes in every battleground. Of late, Trump has deviated off course and into states like Virginia and New Mexico in the final days of the campaign, declaring he could expand his map.
Yet he’s made a plan of returning to North Carolina each day until the election.
On Saturday, Trump held rallies in Greensboro and Gastonia, visiting Virginia in between, while Harris landed in Charlotte for a large rally. Trump returns Sunday to Kinston and then is scheduled to hold a rally in Raleigh on Monday.
While Harris campaign aides on social media chided Trump for holding a defensive posture in a state that hasn’t gone blue since 2008, the Trump campaign cast the repeated visits to North Carolina as an aggressive, cover-all-the-bases strategy.
“Now the fate of our nation is in your hands,” Trump said at his rally in Gastonia Saturday. “We win this state, we’re going to win the whole ballgame.”
Like many battlegrounds, polling averages of North Carolina show the state within the margin of error, handing Trump a slight edge.
The political dynamics have sharply shifted in the closing months of the race after Hurricane Helene smashed into the western part of the state, destroying entire towns and displacing scores of people, largely in rural areas. A torrent of misinformation pushed by Trump — even as it was debunked by members of his own party — had Democrats fearing the narrative was too much to overcome.
But Harris remains within striking distance. If she manages to claim the state, she could conceivably block a Trump path to victory. But she would still need to win Pennsylvania, a state where each campaign has landed more than any other.
If Harris loses Pennsylvania but keeps the other “blue wall” states of Wisconsin and Michigan and somehow wins North Carolina, it would still not be enough to win the necessary 270 Electoral College votes.
She would also need electoral votes from another state that President Joe Biden won in 2020, such as Nevada. So far, Republicans are demonstrating strength compared to Democrats in early voter turnout in the Silver State, with a large group of unaffiliated voters also turning out. It’s unclear how those voters are breaking, and Election Day turnout remains an unknown, as well as cross-party voting.
One longtime Republican strategist involved in voter turnout efforts in North Carolina who was not authorized to speak publicly said Trump should feel emboldened by the strength of his party’s early turnout.
“Before this election, Republicans have never had a cumulative lead in early vote,” the person said. “However, this is not just vote-shifting. We studied this. Republicans in North Carolina have had less of a cannibalization rate,” he added, referring to the rate of high-propensity voters who are simply voting earlier.
This election’s Republican early-voting surge can be attributed, at least in part, to the party’s heavy messaging on voting early. Data as of Friday shows Republicans leading Democrats in North Carolina. But like Nevada, unaffiliated voters also made up a large portion of the early voter electorate and it is largely unknown how they are breaking.
Democrats have a far different interpretation on the early numbers.
“Republicans are definitely turning out at a clip slightly better than Democrats. But … my read is that early vote is 55% female, and every single poll shows that women are supporting Democrats and posting their largest gender gap in North Carolina history,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.
Jackson added that suburban voters were voting at higher rates than their registration share by 2 points, and that in every competitive election since the fall of Roe v. Wade, Democrats outperformed polling with women, unaffiliated voters, suburban voters and Republican women.
“That’s why I’m an optimist about this election,” Jackson said. “I think the fact that Trump is visiting North Carolina more than any state over the last few days says they are seeing the same thing in the early voting numbers that I am and they are concerned.”
North Carolina Democrats have also expressed confidence that they have a superior ground game. Voter registration numbers surged once Harris joined the race, and her rallies in the state have drawn large crowds, including Saturday’s, which drew about 10,000 people, according to the campaign. Republicans have pointed to lower Black turnout as a red flag for Democrats in the state, but strategists in the party say it’s basically remained at pre-Obama levels, which they have expected.
Democrats have also swamped Republicans overall with advertising in the state, spending $66.2 million to $42.4 million from Oct. 1 through Nov. 2. But Republicans have been closing that gap. A huge ad-spending edge from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 ($54 million for Democrats and almost $29 million for Republicans) evaporated in the last week, when Republicans narrowly outspent Democrats $13.7 million to $12.3 million, all according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.
In Charlotte on Saturday, Harris pleaded for voters to get to the polls and to turn the page on Trump, whom she characterized as divisive.
“North Carolina, I’m here to ask for your vote. … I pledge to seek common ground and commonsense solutions to the challenges you face,” the vice president said. “I pledge to you to listen to experts, to listen to people who disagree with me. Because you see, unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe that people who disagree with me are the enemy.”
