Extremists inspired by conspiracy theories pose major threat to 2024 elections, U.S. intelligence warns

U.S. intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists with grievances rooted in election-related conspiracy theories, including beliefs in widespread voter fraud and animosity toward perceived political opponents, as the most likely threat of violence in the coming election. 

In a Joint Intelligence Bulletin that was not distributed publicly but was reviewed by NBC News, agents from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security warn state and local law enforcement agencies that domestic violent extremists seeking to terrorize and disrupt the vote are a threat to the election and throughout Inauguration Day. 

The report identified the potential targets as candidates, elected officials, election workers, members of the media and judges involved in election cases. The potential threats include physical attacks and violence at polling places, ballot drop boxes, voter registration locations and rallies and campaign events.

The October internal report was among several intelligence documents obtained through public records requests by Property of the People, a nonprofit group focused on government transparency. Federal agents regularly provide that type of threat assessment to state and local law enforcement agencies through formal bulletins. Before Jan. 6, 2021, they were more reluctant to distribute them because of concern that investigations of Americans might appear to violate free speech protections.    

“The United States remains in a heightened, dynamic threat environment and we continue to share information with our law enforcement partners about the threats posed by domestic violent extremists in the context of the 2024 election,” DHS spokesperson Mayra Rodriguez said in a statement. “Violence has no place in our politics, and DHS continues to work with our partners to evaluate and mitigate emerging threats that may arise from domestic or foreign actors.”

Still, the reports “are not typical election threat intelligence,” said Ryan Shapiro, executive director of Property of the People. “The documents are unmistakably a product of a radically heightened threat environment.”

Former President Donald Trump has claimed elections have been rigged against him since 2016, when he won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. In 2020, he and his allies ramped up false claims of cheating — lies the courts quickly struck down — but the claims became fuel for a violent attack at the Capitol, which aimed to overturn the election.

Perceptions of election fraud are a “prominent narrative” for extremists who have targeted government and election officials, with at least three domestic extremist attacks and two disrupted plots being linked to such false claims since Jan. 6., according to the report. Intelligence agents also listed immigration, LGBTQ issues, abortion and the failed assassination attempts against Trump as motivations for recent calls for violence from extremists. 

Threats to election workers — including letters containing white powder, online harassment and threats and swatting, in which fake calls to emergency services trigger potentially dangerous law enforcement responses to people’s homes — have recently increased, according to the FBI. Such threats tend to originate from areas where election results have been contested, according to the report. 

Election officials have responded to the warnings by ramping up security measures. In Maricopa County, Arizona, an epicenter of election conspiracy theories and challenges in 2020, officials are reportedly implementing heightened security measures for Election Day, including metal detectors, armed guards, drones and police snipers. 

The reports follow others released in recent weeks that warn of an increase in online chatter about an impending civil war, as well as several incidents of violence or thwarted attacks before the election. Agents wrote that some extremists were “reacting to the 2024 election season and prominent policy issues by engaging in illegal preparatory or violent activity that they link to the narrative of an impending civil war.”

A separate October bulletin from Colorado’s state threat assessment center highlighted threats posed by people who dispute the legitimacy of the 2020 election results. The report underscored the problem of “insider threats,” in which people with authorized access to the election process might attempt to derail it. It also noted a “continued dialogue amongst individuals on extremist discussion groups and forums that the results of the 2020 elections were inaccurate.” 

The report noted recent incidents of targeted violence, including increased activity from white nationalists and Proud Boy organizing against Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. It also noted disturbing calls for violence on anonymous online message boards targeting election workers and undocumented immigrants as part of “election steal defense prep.”